Survey of Consumer Expectations

SCE Credit Access — February 2015 March 27, 2014

The February 2015 SCE Credit Access Survey shows little change in application rates for credit over the last twelve months, but a decline in rejection rates, particularly for credit card limit increases.

Survey of Consumer Expectations

Survey of Consumer Expectations — March 2015 March 9, 2015

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York today released results from its February 2015 Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE) paint a multifaceted picture of the direction of the US economy. Median consumer inflation expectations at the short term horizon declined slightly to 2.8%, but remained stable at the three-year horizon. Both home price expectations and household spending change expectations fell to their lowest levels since the inception of the survey in June 2013. While earnings growth expectations also declined, other indicators of the labor market (such as likelihood of losing one’s job) continued to improve. Credit availability expectations remained unchanged.

Household Debt and Credit

Household Debt Continues Upward Climb, while Student Loan and Auto Delinquencies Worsen
February 17, 2015

Survey of Consumer Expectations

Survey of Consumer Expectations — February 2015 February 9, 2015

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York today released results from its January 2015 Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE) which provides insight into Americans’ views on inflation, prices, the labor market and household finance. Median consumer inflation expectations were largely unchanged at both the one-year and the three-year ahead horizons at 2.9% and 3.0%, respectively. Median household spending growth expectations retreated significantly from the last month. The mean perceived probability of finding a job in the next three months (if one were to lose one’s current job) continued to increase.

Survey of Consumer Expectations

Survey of Consumer Expectations — January 2015 January 12, 2015

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York today released results from its December 2014 Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE) which provides insight into Americans’ views on inflation, prices, the labor market and household finance. While median consumer inflation expectations at both short and long term horizons remained unchanged from the previous month, the cross-sectional distribution of consumer inflation shifted considerably downwards. Median earnings growth expectations, while lower than in the previous month, remain above the average in the first eleven months of 2014. Expected job loss is at its lowest level since the inception of the survey in June 2013.

Survey of Consumer Expectations

Survey of Consumer Expectations — December 2014 December 8, 2014

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York today released results from its November 2014 Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE)  which provides insight into Americans’ views on inflation, prices, the labor market and household finance. Consumer inflation expectations have remained virtually unchanged since August 2014. Median earnings growth expectations and median household income growth expectations increased to their highest levels since the inception of the survey in June 2013.

Household Debt and Credit

New York Fed Report Shows Household Debt Edges Higher
November 25, 2014

Survey of Consumer Expectations

What is the Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE)? November 20, 2014

Learn why the New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations is a unique source of real-time, forward-looking information about consumers’ expectations and behavior about a wide variety of topics.

Survey of Consumer Expectations

SCE Credit Access — October 2014 November 20, 2014

The SCE Credit Access Survey provides information on consumers' experiences and expectations regarding credit demand and credit access. Every four months, SCE panelists are asked whether they applied for credit in the past 12 months, and the resulting outcomes.

Survey of Consumer Expectations

Survey of Consumer Expectations — November 2014 November 10, 2014

Consumer inflation expectations remained unchanged from September at both the one-year ahead and the three-year ahead horizons. Median one-year ahead expected gas price growth fell to 3.9%, a new 17-month low. The mean perceived probability of the average interest rate on savings accounts being higher in one year fell to 27 percent, also a new low in our data series.

Survey of Consumer Expectations

Survey of Consumer Expectations — October 2014 October 14, 2014

Consumer inflation expectations in September remained unchanged from August at both the one-year ahead and the three-year ahead horizons. Median household income growth expectations increased to 2.9 percent from 2.5 percent in August, a new 16-month high. Perceptions of current credit availability relative to one year ago improved slightly.

Survey of Consumer Expectations

Survey of Consumer Expectations — September 2014 September 8, 2014

The median home price change expectation at the one-year ahead horizon in August was 3.5 percent, its lowest reading since the data series began in June 2013. Expectations regarding earnings growth and job separations remain toward the favorable end of their recent ranges. Finally, expected credit availability one year from now continued its steady year-long improvement.

Household Debt and Credit

New York Fed Report Shows Rises in Auto Loan Originations and Balances
August 14, 2014

Survey of Consumer Expectations

Survey of Consumer Expectations — August 2014 August 11, 2014

Consumer inflation expectations at both the one-year and three-year horizons have remained stable over the past nine months. Labor market expectations were mixed. While the probability of finding a job in three months (if current job was lost) rose to its highest level since the start of the survey, median earnings growth expectations decreased to 2.2 percent. Household finance expectations were also mixed in July. While expectations of income growth decreased, perceptions and expectations of credit availability continued to improve and the likelihood of not making a debt payment declined.

Survey of Consumer Expectations

Survey of Consumer Expectations — July 2014 JULY 14, 2014

Labor market expectations improved in June, with median earnings growth expectations firming up and the median expected job finding rate reaching a new high since our first survey in June 2013. Consumer inflation expectations remained essentially unchanged from May at both the one-year ahead and the three-year ahead horizons. Mean household income growth expectations increased slightly, but remained within the narrow band (2.0 – 2.6 percent) observed over the last 12 months.

Survey of Consumer Expectations

Survey of Consumer Expectations — June 2014 June 9, 2014

May results show consumer inflation expectations remained essentially unchanged from April at both the one-year ahead and the three-year ahead horizons. Median earnings growth expectations also remained flat at 2 percent annual growth. Mean household income growth expectations declined slightly to 2.3 percent, but remained within the narrow band (2.0 - 2.6 percent) observed over the last 12 months. Perceived credit availability continued to improve slightly.

New York Fed Survey Shows Consumer Expectations Remain Steady
June 9, 2014

Household Debt and Credit

Household Debt Grows for the Third Consecutive Quarter
May 13, 2014

Survey of Consumer Expectations

Survey of Consumer Expectations — May 2014 May 12, 2014

April results show home price change expectations fell slightly for the fourth straight month, reaching a new low of 3.77 percent. Consumer inflation expectations rose slightly at the one-year ahead horizon but declined at the three-year ahead horizon. Median earnings growth expectations declined to 2 percent, the lowest level this year while the mean likelihood of finding a job among the employed also declined. Mean household income growth expectations increased to 2.64 percent, the highest level since August 2013 and household spending growth expectations increased slightly. Perceived credit availability was largely unchanged.

New York Fed Survey Shows Consumer Expectations Mainly Stable
May 12, 2014

Survey of Consumer Expectations — April 2014 April 14, 2014

March results show consumer inflation expectations rose slightly at both the one-year and the three-year ahead horizon, whereas home price change expectations declined slightly. Median earnings growth expectations rose slightly to 2.4%, the highest level since the start of the survey in June 2013. The mean perceived chance of finding a job in three months, if one were to lose their current job today increased slightly to 49%. Household income and spending growth expectations remained essentially unchanged, while current credit access perceptions improved slightly.

Survey of Consumer Expectations — March 2014 March 10, 2014

February results show that consumer inflation expectations rose slightly in February at both the one-year and the three-year ahead horizon. Median earnings growth expectations remained above 2013 levels. The mean expected probability of finding a job in three months, if one were to lose their current job today, declined slightly to about 46%. Household income and spending growth expectations remained essentially unchanged, as did past and future credit access perceptions.

Household Debt and Credit

The Fourth Quarter of 2013 Shows Households adding Debt
February 18, 2013

Total Debt Balance

Liberty Street Economics Blog

Just Released: Who—s Borrowing Now? The Young and the Riskless! February 18, 2014

The Fourth Quarter 2013 Household Debt and Credit Report shows that growth in student loans and auto loans is concentrated among the young and those in the lower and middle credit score groups.

Survey of Consumer Expectations

Survey of Consumer Expectations — February 2014 February 10, 2014

January results show that consumer expectations for inflation fell slightly. Earnings growth expectations over the next 12 months rose from 1.8% to 2.4%, with income and spending growth expectations increasing slightly as well. Additionally, the mean probability of finding a job in three months, if one were to lose their current job today, increased to levels seen last summer.

Survey of Consumer Expectations

Survey of Consumer Expectations — January 2014 January 13, 2014

The monthly survey for December shows that consumer expectations for overall inflation and home prices remained stable in recent months. Median earnings and household income growth expectations have remained steady and perceptions of credit access have improved slightly. Consumers also expect household income growth at around 2%.

Household Debt and Credit

Liberty Street Economics Blog

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Microeconomic Data

The Center for Microeconomic Data serves to centralize the collection, acquisition, and analysis of microeconomic data at the New York Fed and act as a catalyst for microeconomic research by promoting engagement with the wide academic community. The wide-ranging data, research, and analysis produced in the Center provide insight into individual-level financial and nonfinancial economic conditions, expectations, and behavior in the U.S.
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