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Job Declines in New York-New Jersey Region to Slow in 2003; Modest Growth Seen for 2004
|July 30, 2003|
|Note To Editors||
The latest edition of the Federal Reserve Bank of New Yorkís Second District Highlights, Job Declines in New York-New Jersey Region to Slow in 2003; Modest Growth Seen for 2004 is available.
Overview of the New York State-New Jersey Region
The authors caution that trends in the national economy and in the financial markets will be essential to the regionís employment outlook. In particular, slower-than-projected national growth and renewed weakness in the stock market would likely dampen the job forecast, especially for New York City, with its concentration in the financial services sector.
For 2003, the authors estimate that the regionís decline in employment will be much less steep than the 1.2 percent fall in 2002. They anticipate a 0.3 percent reduction, or 36,000 fewer jobs, in regional employment for this year.
New York State Employment
New York City Employment
In 2004, a 0.6 percent expansion, or 21,000 jobs, is expected by Orr and Rosen. Professional and business services as well as information are likely to emerge as the main sources of growth. Assuming the national economy picks up, both sectors should see an intensification of demand. The rise will spur overall growth in New York City because of the cityís high concentration of jobs in these sectors.
New Jersey Employment
James Orr is a research officer and Rae Rosen is an assistant vice president and senior economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.