Current Issues in Economics and Finance
Second District Highlights

Is the Worst Over? Economic Indexes and the Course of the Recession in New York and New Jersey

September 2009Volume 15, Number 5
JEL classification: R10, R11, R12, R15

Authors: Jason Bram, James Orr, Robert Rich, Rae Rosen, and Joseph Song

The New York–New Jersey region entered a pronounced downturn in 2008, but the pace of decline eased considerably in spring 2009 and then leveled off in July, according to three key Federal Reserve Bank of New York economic indexes. These developments, in conjunction with a growing consensus that the national economy is headed for recovery, suggest that the worst may be over for the region’s economy. However, a downsizing of the area’s critical finance sector could pose a major risk to the economic outlook going forward—particularly for New York City.

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