Authors: Ricardo Correa, Julian di Giovanni, Linda S. Goldberg, and Camelia Minoiu
-
-
-
The Governance & Culture Reform hub is designed to foster discussion about corporate governance and the reform of culture and behavior in the financial services industry.
Need to file a report with the New York Fed? Here are all of the forms, instructions and other information related to regulatory and statistical reporting in one spot.
The New York Fed works to protect consumers as well as provides information and resources on how to avoid and report specific scams.
-
-
-
The New York Fed provides a wide range of payment services for financial institutions and the U.S. government.
The New York Fed offers the Central Banking Seminar and several specialized courses for central bankers and financial supervisors.
The New York Fed has been working with tri-party repo market participants to make changes to improve the resiliency of the market to financial stress.
-
-
-
We are connecting emerging solutions with funding in three areas—health, household financial stability, and climate—to improve life for underserved communities. Learn more by reading our strategy.
The Economic Inequality & Equitable Growth hub is a collection of research, analysis and convenings to help better understand economic inequality.
The Governance & Culture Reform hub is designed to foster discussion about corporate governance and the reform of culture and behavior in the financial services industry.
-
Staff Reports
Trade Uncertainty and U.S. Bank Lending
Number 1076
November 2023 Revised May 2024
November 2023 Revised May 2024
JEL classification: F34, F42, G21
This paper uses U.S. credit register data and the 2018-2019 Trade War to study the effects of uncertainty on domestic credit supply. Exploiting differences in banks’ ex-ante exposure to trade uncertainty, we find that increased uncertainty is associated with a broad lending contraction across their customer firms. This result is consistent with banks responding to uncertainty with wait-and-see behaviors, where more exposed banks curtail risky exposures, reduce loan maturities, and adjust loan supply along both intensive and extensive margins. The lending contraction is larger for more capital-constrained banks and has significant real effects, especially for bank-dependent firms.
Author Disclosure Statement(s)
Ricardo Correa
I declare that I have no relevant or material financial interests that relate to the research described in this paper. Prior to circulation, this paper was reviewed by the Federal Reserve Board to ensure no violations of the rules applicable to the use of confidential supervisory information and in accordance with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York review policy, available at https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/index.html.
Julian di Giovanni
Julian di Giovanni declares that he has no relevant or material financial interests that relate to the research described in this paper. Prior to circulation, this paper was reviewed in accordance with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York review policy, available at https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/index.html.
Linda S. Goldberg
The author, Linda Goldberg, declares that she has no relevant or material financial interests that relate to the research described in this paper. Prior to circulation, this paper was reviewed in accordance with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York review policy, available at https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/index.html.
Camelia Minoiu
I declare that I have no relevant or material financial interests that relate to the research described in this paper. Prior to circulation, this paper was reviewed in accordance with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York review policy, available at https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/index.html.
I declare that I have no relevant or material financial interests that relate to the research described in this paper. Prior to circulation, this paper was reviewed by the Federal Reserve Board to ensure no violations of the rules applicable to the use of confidential supervisory information and in accordance with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York review policy, available at https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/index.html.
Julian di Giovanni
Julian di Giovanni declares that he has no relevant or material financial interests that relate to the research described in this paper. Prior to circulation, this paper was reviewed in accordance with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York review policy, available at https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/index.html.
Linda S. Goldberg
The author, Linda Goldberg, declares that she has no relevant or material financial interests that relate to the research described in this paper. Prior to circulation, this paper was reviewed in accordance with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York review policy, available at https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/index.html.
Camelia Minoiu
I declare that I have no relevant or material financial interests that relate to the research described in this paper. Prior to circulation, this paper was reviewed in accordance with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York review policy, available at https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/index.html.
Suggested Citation:
Correa, Richard, Julian di Giovanni, Linda S. Goldberg, and Camelia Minoiu. 2023. “Trade Uncertainty and U.S. Bank Lending.” Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, no. 1076, November. https://doi.org/10.59576/sr.1076
Correa, Richard, Julian di Giovanni, Linda S. Goldberg, and Camelia Minoiu. 2023. “Trade Uncertainty and U.S. Bank Lending.” Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, no. 1076, November. https://doi.org/10.59576/sr.1076
By continuing to use our site, you agree to our Terms of Use and Privacy Statement. You can learn more about how we use cookies by reviewing our Privacy Statement. 
