The Federal Reserve Bank of New York works to promote sound and well-functioning financial systems and markets through its provision of industry and payment services, advancement of infrastructure reform in key markets and training and educational support to international institutions.
The Outreach & Education function engages, empowers and educates the public in the Second District. Our outreach mission furthers the Bank’s commitment to the region by listening to the communities we serve and developing programs, analysis and sponsored conferences and clinics to help meet their needs. Our education mission aims to advance public knowledge about the Federal Reserve System and its role in the economy.
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s July 2015 Business Leaders Survey indicates that activity in the region’s service sector expanded moderately. The survey’s headline business activity index was little changed at 11.0. The business climate index climbed five points to -7.3, signaling that, on balance, respondents continued to view the business climate as worse than normal. After reaching a multiyear high last month, the employment index fell seven points to 16.9, an indication that employment continued to grow strongly. The wages index slipped three points to 34.6, pointing to somewhat slower growth in wages. Price indexes revealed a slight decline in the pace of both input price and selling price increases. Indexes assessing the six-month outlook were positive, but suggested that firms remained less optimistic than they were earlier this year.
Business activity continued to grow in the region’s service sector, according to the July survey. The survey’s headline business activity index was little changed at 11.0. This month, 39 percent of respondents reported that conditions improved, while 28 percent reported that conditions worsened. The business climate index rose five points to -7.3, indicating that, on balance, firms continued to view the business climate as worse than normal, though to a lesser extent than last month.
Labor market indicators signaled an expansion in employment and wages. After reaching a multiyear high last month, the employment index fell seven points to 16.9, suggesting that employment growth remained strong. The wages index retreated three points to 34.6, indicating a slightly slower pace of wage growth than last month. Price indexes edged lower, suggesting a slightly slower pace of increase in both input prices and selling prices. The prices paid index moved down four points to 44.1, and the prices received index declined two points to 11.9. The capital spending index was little changed at 9.0.
Outlook Less Positive than Earlier This Year
Indexes assessing the six-month outlook suggested that for a second consecutive month, firms were less optimistic about future business conditions than they were earlier in 2015. The index for expected business activity rose slightly to 31.9, and the index for future business climate retreated for a fourth consecutive month, falling four points to 16.3. The index for expected employment was unchanged at 20.5, while the index for future wages climbed nine points to 46.5. The index for expected capital spending fell six points to 13.4.
The Business Leaders Survey is a monthly survey conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York that asks companies across its District - which includes New York State, Northern New Jersey, and Fairfield County, Connecticut - about recent and expected trends in key business indicators. This survey is designed to parallel the Empire State Manufacturing Survey, though it covers a wider geography and the questions are slightly different. Participants from the service sector respond to a questionnaire and report on a variety of indicators' both in terms of recent and expected changes. While January 2014 is the first published report, survey responses date back to September of 2004 and all historical data are available on our website.
The survey is sent on the first business day of each month to the same pool of about 150 business executives, usually the president or CEO, in the region's service sector. In a typical month, about 100 responses are received by around the tenth of the month when the survey closes.
Respondents come from a wide range of industries outside of the manufacturing sector, with the mix of respondents closely resembling the industry structure of the region.
The survey's headline index, general business activity, is a distinct question posed on the survey (as opposed to a composite of responses to other questions). Currently, no indexes are seasonally adjusted since none of the series exhibits stable seasonal patterns from a statistical perspective.