The Federal Reserve Bank of New York works to promote sound and well-functioning financial systems and markets through its provision of industry and payment services, advancement of infrastructure reform in key markets and training and educational support to international institutions.
The Outreach and Education function engages, empowers and educates the Second District communities that the Bank serves, especially civic leaders, students, educators, small business owners, policymakers and the general public. It furthers the Bank's commitment to the region by listening to the communities we serve and leveraging our unique attributes to positively impact school and university programs, as well as analysis and research.
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's June 2015 Business Leaders Survey indicates that activity in the region's service sector expanded moderately. The survey's headline business activity index was little changed at 11.2. The business climate index fell five points, signaling that, on balance, respondents continued to view the business climate as worse than normal. Labor market indicators strengthened this month. The employment index jumped thirteen points to 23.5, a multi-year high, marking a substantial expansion in employment levels. The wages index edged down slightly, but, at 37.6, pointed to a significant pickup in wages. Price indexes suggested that increases in both input prices and selling prices accelerated. The prices paid index rose five points to 48.5, and the prices received index moved up seven points to 13.5. Indexes assessing the six-month outlook fell noticeably, indicating that optimism about the six-month outlook waned in June.
Business activity continued to grow in the region's service sector, according to the June survey. The survey's headline business activity index was little changed at 11.2. This month, 37 percent of respondents reported that conditions improved, while 25 percent reported that conditions worsened. The business climate index fell five points to -12.6, indicating that, on balance, firms continued to view the business climate as worse than normal, and to a greater extent than last month.
A Substantial Increase in Employment
Labor market indicators pointed to a solid pickup in both employment and wages. The employment index jumped thirteen points to 23.5, its highest level in several years, pointing to substantial growth in employment levels. At 37.6, the wages index was slightly lower than May's level, but continued to indicate strong wage growth. Price indexes marched higher, suggesting a steeper increase in both input prices and selling prices. The prices paid index climbed five points to 48.5, and the prices received index rose seven points to 13.5. The capital spending index edged up to 9.9.
Indexes assessing the six-month outlook suggested that firms were less optimistic about future business conditions. The index for expected business activity moved down ten points to 28.9, its lowest level in over a year, and the index for future business climate retreated five points to 20.2. The index for expected employment dropped thirteen points to 20.9, and the index for future wages drifted down to 37.2. The index for expected capital spending rose four points to 19.2.
The Business Leaders Survey is a monthly survey conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York that asks companies across its District - which includes New York State, Northern New Jersey, and Fairfield County, Connecticut - about recent and expected trends in key business indicators. This survey is designed to parallel the Empire State Manufacturing Survey, though it covers a wider geography and the questions are slightly different. Participants from the service sector respond to a questionnaire and report on a variety of indicators' both in terms of recent and expected changes. While January 2014 is the first published report, survey responses date back to September of 2004 and all historical data are available on our website.
The survey is sent on the first business day of each month to the same pool of about 150 business executives, usually the president or CEO, in the region's service sector. In a typical month, about 100 responses are received by around the tenth of the month when the survey closes.
Respondents come from a wide range of industries outside of the manufacturing sector, with the mix of respondents closely resembling the industry structure of the region.
The survey's headline index, general business activity, is a distinct question posed on the survey (as opposed to a composite of responses to other questions). Currently, no indexes are seasonally adjusted since none of the series exhibits stable seasonal patterns from a statistical perspective.