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The June 2015 Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that
business conditions worsened slightly
for New York manufacturers. The
headline general business conditions
index fell five points to -2.0, its second
negative reading in the past three
months. The new orders index fell
six points to -2.1, and the shipments
index edged down to 12.0. Labor
market indicators pointed to a small
increase in employment levels and
the average workweek. Price indexes
were little changed. At 9.6, the prices
paid index remained near last month’s
multiyear low, and the prices received
index held steady at 1.0, indicating that
selling prices were flat for a second
consecutive month. The index for future
general business conditions retreated in
June, suggesting that optimism about
future business conditions waned.
Business conditions worsened
marginally for New York manufacturers,
according to the June 2015 survey.
The general business conditions index
dropped five points to -2.0. This
index has been hovering near zero for
the past three months, suggesting that
activity has remained flat since April.
Twenty-six percent of respondents
reported that conditions had improved,
while 28 percent reported that conditions
had worsened. After a brief foray into
positive territory last month, the new
orders index fell back below zero:
at -2.1, it indicated a small decline
in orders. The shipments index was
little changed at 12.0, suggesting that
shipments continued to grow steadily.
The unfilled orders index advanced
seven points but, at -4.8, it pointed
to a small decline in unfilled orders. The delivery time index climbed to -1.9, and the inventories index fell
to 1.9, suggesting little change in
delivery times and inventory levels.
Price Increases Remain Subdued
Price increases continued to be restrained.
After reaching a multiyear low last
month, the prices paid index was little
changed at 9.6, indicating a modest
increase in input prices. The prices
received index held steady at 1.0—a sign
that selling prices remained flat. Labor
market conditions pointed to a modest
increase in employment and a small
increase in hours worked. The index for
number of employees edged up three
points to 8.7, and the average workweek
index climbed six points to 3.9.
Optimism Wanes Further in June
The index for future general business
conditions fell for a second consecutive
month. The four-point drop, to 25.8,
signaled that optimism about the
six-month outlook ebbed further in
June. The future new orders index fell
eight points to 26.1, and the index for
future shipments fell ten points to 22.1.
The future inventories index plunged
twenty points to -17.3, suggesting a
widespread belief that inventory levels
would decline in the months ahead.
Indexes for future prices paid and
received were little changed. The index
for future employment declined for a
third consecutive month but, at 13.5,
it still suggested that manufacturers
expected employment levels to rise. The
capital expenditures index moved down
four points to 11.5, and the technology
spending index fell to -1.0.
Participants from across the state in
a variety of industries respond to a questionnaire and
report the change in a variety of indicators from the
previous month. Respondents also state the likely direction
of these same indicators six months ahead. April 2002
is the first report, although survey data date back
to July 2001.
The survey is sent on the first day of each month to
the same pool of about 200 manufacturing executives
in New York State, typically the president or CEO. About
100 responses are received. Most are completed by the
tenth, although surveys are accepted until the fifteenth.
Respondents come from a wide range of industries from
across the New York State. No one industry dominates
the respondent pool.
The survey's main index, general business conditions, is not a weighted average of other indicators—it is a distinct question posed on the survey.
Each index is seasonally adjusted when stable seasonality is detected.
Each January, all data undergo a benchmark revision
to reflect new seasonal factors.
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey seasonally adjusts data based on the Census X-12 additive procedure utilizing a logistic transformation.
The "increase" and "decrease" percentage
components of the diffusion indexes are each tested
for seasonality separately and adjusted accordingly
if such patterns exist. If no seasonality is detected,
the component is left unadjusted. The "no change"
component contains the residual, computed by subtracting
the (adjusted) increase and decrease from 100. Seasonal
factors are forecast in December for the upcoming year.
Data are adjusted using a logistic transformation.
The not-seasonally adjusted series, expressed in decimal
form (referred to as "p"), is transformed
using the following equation:
X = log(p/(1-p))
The seasonal factor is then subtracted from X:
adjX = X - seasonal factor
The result is then transformed using the following
SA Series = exponential(adjX)/(1+exponential(adjX))
To view the Seasonal Factors data, please click on the “Data & Charts” tab.