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A reduced dependency on foreign funds can be viewed as a favorable development for the U.S. economy to the extent that it reflects an improvement in the fiscal balance. However, it also reflects the lackluster recovery in residential investment, which is one reason the U.S. economy has yet to get back to its full operating potential.
Although a slowdown in Puerto Rico’s birthrate has contributed to the island’s sharp population decline, a surge in out-migration has been a more important factor. The authors consider steps that might counter the trend, including efforts to shore up the economy and expand job opportunities for younger workers.
By Jaison R. Abel and Richard Deitz, Current Issues in Economics and Finance, volume 20, number 4, August 2014
Several recent studies document that the extent to which shocks are transmitted through banks across borders depends on the type of foreign activities these banks engage in. The authors propose a model to explain the composition of banks’ foreign activities, distinguishing between international interbank lending, intrabank lending, and cross-border lending to foreign firms.
By Cornelia Kerl and Friederike Niepmann, Staff Reports 681, July 2014
The authors document macroeconomic forecasting during the global financial crisis by the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. This paper is the result of a collaborative effort between the two institutions that allowed the authors to study time-stamped forecasts as they were made throughout the crisis.
By Lucia Alessi, Eric Ghysels, Luca Onorante, Richard Peach, and Simon Potter, Staff Reports 680, July 2014