Economic Research

From the Vault: Understanding Puerto Rico’s Economic Challenges
Recent news stories examining the toll that a decade of stagnation, out-migration, and heavy debt has taken on Puerto Rico draw on work summarized in two posts in the Liberty Street Economics archive.
By Anna Snider
A Distributed Version of Repugnance as a Constraint on Markets
Garratt explains how the “distributed public ledger”—a new type of payment system that facilitates payments in virtual currencies, most notably Bitcoin—could allow individuals or institutions to impede or prevent transactions that they deem objectionable.
By Rod Garratt
Discounting the Long Run
The bloggers explain the need for and use of term structure models for extracting far-in-the-future interest rate expectations from market rates. They illustrate their arguments by discussing the measurement of long-run discount rates for Social Security.
By Tobias Adrian, Richard Crump, Peter Diamond, and Rui Yu
From the Vault: Supplementing a Monetary Policy Syllabus
Economics educators face a challenge in keeping up with new developments in monetary policy since the financial crisis. Take a tour through our blog archive for pieces that help update a course syllabus.
By Anna Snider
Just Released: An Update on Regional Economic Conditions Provided at Our Economic Press Briefing
Today’s briefing showed that many parts of the region, such as New York City, Buffalo, and Albany, have bounced back quite well from the Great Recession and are growing at a solid clip. However, the picture is a bit different in other parts of the region: in Northern New Jersey and the Lower Hudson Valley, jobs are still not back to their pre-recession peak; and in Binghamton, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands, there are no meaningful signs of recovery.
By Jaison R. Abel, Jason Bram, James Orr, and Richard Deitz
Mind the Gap: Assessing Labor Market Slack
The bloggers develop an updated measure of labor market slack based on the behavior of labor compensation. According to this measure, roughly 90 percent of the labor gap that opened up following the recession has been closed.
By Joseph Tracy, Robert Rich, Samuel Kapon, and Ellen Fu
Supplemental Survey Report
The August Survey examined how the Affordable Care Act (ACA) has affected businesses and how businesses are responding to the new legislation.
Business Leaders Survey
Business Leaders Survey
The August 2015 survey indicates that activity in the region’s service sector expanded modestly.
Empire State Manufacturing Survey
Empire State Manufacturing Survey
Latest survey for August 2015 finds business conditions tumbled nineteen points to -14.9, its lowest level since 2009.
U.S. Economy in a Snapshot
U.S. Economy in a Snapshot is a monthly presentation designed to give you a quick and accessible look at developments in the economy.
SCE Housing Survey
SCE Housing Survey—2015
Our 2015 survey finds U.S. households remain broadly optimistic about the housing market. Most renters report that they would rather own than rent if they had the necessary financial resources. As in last year’s survey, a majority believe that it would be difficult to obtain a mortgage, although responses suggest a slight easing in perceived credit access.
Greenboard with math squiggles for DSGE model artwork
The FRBNY DSGE Model
In recent work, economists described the New York Fed’s dynamic stochastic equilibrium model, assessed its forecasting accuracy, and shared source code used for model estimation.
Research Topics in Focus: College grads
Is College Worth It?
Students in recent years have been paying more to attend college and earning less upon graduation—trends that have raised questions about whether a college education remains a good investment. But research from economists Jaison Abel and Richard Deitz finds that the benefits of college still tend to outweigh the costs.
Recent Articles
Do We Know What We Owe? Consumer Debt as Reported by Borrowers and Lenders
The authors compare U.S. household debt as reported by borrowers to the Survey of Consumer Finances with debt reported by lenders to Equifax using the FRBNY Consumer Credit Panel. They find debt levels to be strikingly similar, with notable mismatches in credit card debt and student debt only.
By Meta Brown, Andrew Haughwout, Donghoon Lee, and Wilbert van der Klaauw, Economic Policy Review, Forthcoming
Nonlinear Pricing with Competition: The Market for Settling Payments
Recognizing that payments differ in the urgency with which they need to be settled, Fedwire offers banks a decreasing block-price schedule that allows price discrimination: charging high fees for urgent payments and low fees for less urgent ones. The authors analyze banks’ demand for Fedwire funds given this nonlinear scheme, taking into account competing settlement systems.
By Adam Copeland and Rodney Garratt, Staff Reports 737, August 2015
The Term Structure of the Price of Volatility Risk
The authors estimate the term structure of the price of volatility risk and find that the price of insurance against increased volatility depends on the horizon of the risk insured. In particular, short-term insurance is much more expensive than long-term insurance. These results extend the insight that risk prices have a pronounced term structure to the market for volatility risk. P
Marianne Andries, Thomas Eisenbach, Martin Schmalz, and Yichuan Wang, Staff Reports 736, August 2015
The Price Effects of Cash versus In-Kind Transfers
The bloggers test for price effects of in-kind transfers versus cash transfers using data collected for the evaluation of a large food assistance program for the poor in Mexico, Programa de Apoyo Alimentario (PAL).
Jesse M. Cunha, Giacomo De Giorgi, and Seema Jayachandran, Staff Reports 735, August 2015
Subjective Intertemporal Substitution
The authors estimate the elasticity of intertemporal substitution—the elasticity of expected consumption growth with respect to variation in the real interest rate—using subjective expectations from the New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations.
Richard K. Crump, Stefano Eusepi, Andrea Tambalotti, and Giorgio Topa, Staff Reports 734, July 2015
Credit Supply and the Rise in College Tuition: Evidence from the Expansion in Federal Student Aid Programs
The authors examine detailed student-level financial data and changes in federal student aid programs to identify the impact of increased student loan funding on tuition.
David Lucca, Taylor Nadauld, and Karen Shen, Staff Reports 733, July 2015
Determinants of Mortgage Default and Consumer Credit Use: The Effects of Foreclosure Laws and Foreclosure Delays
This paper exploits unique panel data derived from credit reports to provide the first comprehensive evidence at the individual level of how homeowners manage credit during periods of financial stress.
By Sewin Chan, Andrew Haughwout, Andrew Hayashi, and Wilbert van der Klaauw, Staff Reports 732, June 2015
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