Economic Research

From the Vault: Gauging Treasury Market Liquidity
Recent news has featured a spate of warnings about a deterioration in liquidity in the U.S. Treasury market. Two posts in our archive address the topic through the lens of a 2013 bond market sell-off.
By Anna Snider
Falling Oil Prices and Global Saving
The drop in oil prices will lower global saving in 2015 because it shifts income away from oil-exporting countries that have had a relatively high propensity to save.
Thomas Klitgaard and Patrick Russo
Becoming a Large Bank? It’s Not Easy
The bloggers show that it is highly uncommon for banks to reach sizes at which they are considered systemically important financial institutions under the Dodd-Frank Act of 2010.
Rajlakshmi De and Hamid Mehran
The Myth of First-Quarter Residual Seasonality
The bloggers argue that unusually adverse winter weather, rather than imperfect seasonal adjustment by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, was an important factor behind the weak first-quarter GDP data.
By Jan Groen and Patrick Russo
Crisis Chronicles: Railway Mania, the Hungry Forties, and the Commercial Crisis of 1847
Speculation in railway shares, a massive harvest failure in England and Ireland, surging food imports, drained gold reserves, tightening monetary policy, falling food prices, and commodity speculators caught short . . . all led up to a crisis, one of the worst in British history. In this edition of Crisis Chronicles, the bloggers cover the Commercial Crisis of 1847.
By James Narron and Donald P. Morgan
What Drives Buyout Booms and Busts?
The typical buyout (for example, the “leveraged buyout” or LBO) is primarily funded by debt, so analysis of buyout fluctuations has focused on the availability and cost of debt financing. However, the bloggers find that the overall cost of capital, rather than debt alone, is the primary driver of buyout activity.
By Valentin Haddad, Erik Loualiche, and Matthew Plosser
Supplemental Survey Report
For June, manufacturers and service sector firms in the New York-Northern New Jersey region respond to survey questions focused on hiring, retaining, and compensating workers.
Business Leaders Survey
Business Leaders Survey
The June 2015 survey indicates indicates that activity in the region's service sector expanded moderately.
Empire State Manufacturing Survey
Empire State Manufacturing Survey
Latest survey for June 2015 finds business conditions worsened slightly.
U.S. Economy in a Snapshot
U.S. Economy in a Snapshot is a monthly presentation designed to give you a quick and accessible look at developments in the economy.
SCE Housing Survey
SCE Housing Survey—2015
Our 2015 survey finds U.S. households remain broadly optimistic about the housing market. Most renters report that they would rather own than rent if they had the necessary financial resources. As in last year’s survey, a majority believe that it would be difficult to obtain a mortgage, although responses suggest a slight easing in perceived credit access.
Greenboard with math squiggles for DSGE model artwork
The FRBNY DSGE Model
In recent work, economists described the New York Fed’s dynamic stochastic equilibrium model, assessed its forecasting accuracy, and shared source code used for model estimation.
Research Topics in Focus: College grads
Is College Worth It?
Students in recent years have been paying more to attend college and earning less upon graduation—trends that have raised questions about whether a college education remains a good investment. But research from economists Jaison Abel and Richard Deitz finds that the benefits of college still tend to outweigh the costs.
Recent Articles
Subjective Intertemporal Substitution
The authors estimate the elasticity of intertemporal substitution—the elasticity of expected consumption growth with respect to variation in the real interest rate—using subjective expectations from the New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations.
Richard K. Crump, Stefano Eusepi, Andrea Tambalotti, and Giorgio Topa, Staff Reports 734, July 2015
Credit Supply and the Rise in College Tuition: Evidence from the Expansion in Federal Student Aid Programs
The authors examine detailed student-level financial data and changes in federal student aid programs to identify the impact of increased student loan funding on tuition.
David Lucca, Taylor Nadauld, and Karen Shen, Staff Reports 733, July 2015
Determinants of Mortgage Default and Consumer Credit Use: The Effects of Foreclosure Laws and Foreclosure Delays
This paper exploits unique panel data derived from credit reports to provide the first comprehensive evidence at the individual level of how homeowners manage credit during periods of financial stress.
By Sewin Chan, Andrew Haughwout, Andrew Hayashi, and Wilbert van der Klaauw, Staff Reports 732, June 2015
Regional Heterogeneity and Monetary Policy
The first round of Quantitative Easing (QE1), announced in November 2008, increased both U.S. mortgage activity and real spending but its effects were smaller in parts of the country with the largest employment declines.
By Martin Beraja, Andreas Fuster, Erik Hurst, and Joseph Vavra, Staff Reports 731, June 2015
Segregated Balance Accounts
This paper introduces the concept for a new monetary tool—segregated balance accounts (SBAs)—that could provide increased competition for deposits, reduce system-wide balance sheet costs, and improve the transmission of monetary policy by facilitating greater pass-through of interest on excess reserves. The authors explain how SBAs work, their advantages, and some potential risks.
By Rodney Garratt, Antoine Martin, James McAndrews, and Ed Nosal, Staff Reports 730, May 2015
Supervising Large, Complex Financial Companies: What Do Supervisors Do?
This paper describes the Federal Reserve’s supervisory approach to large, complex financial companies and outlines how prudential supervisory activities are structured, staffed, and implemented on a day-to-day basis at the New York Fed. The goal is to generate insight for those not involved in supervision into what supervisors do and how they do it.
By Thomas Eisenbach, Andrew Haughwout, Beverly Hirtle, Anna Kovner, David Lucca, and Matthew Plosser, Staff Reports 729, May 2015
Small Firms' Formalization: The Stick Treatment
The authors perform an experiment—a stick intervention—which is perhaps the first one in a developing country setting that deals with the most direct and dominant form of firm informality, that is, registration with the tax authority with a direct link to the country's potential revenue base and thus public goods provision.
By Giacomo De Giorgi, Matthew Ploenzke, and Aminur Rahman, Staff Reports 728, May 2015
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